November 2015, № 13 (188)

Popov V.V., Tsypin A.P. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF INCOME CUSTOMS PAYMENTS TO THE FEDERAL BUDGET IN TODAY'S ECONOMYDuring the period of economic reform, a system of customs authorities, which corresponds to modern conditions of the international market. With the help of this system has considerable statistical information, which reflects the structure and dynamics of the collection of customs duties, the amount of goods transported through the customs border of the EAEC, and the mechanism of foreign trade and domestic prices, etc. Under these conditions, there is a need of economic and statistical study of the above data to identify patterns of development and implementation of forecasting the state of the phenomenon in the future. The article presents an attempt to build a dynamic model of a statistically significant number of customs payments to the federal budget in the current external economic environment of the Russian Federation. The sequence of steps of the analysis of time series. Constructed an econometric model that takes into account the structural changes in the dynamics of the analyzed a number of levels and a forecast for 2015. According to the results of the study revealed that a significant reduction in customs duties calls into question the economic viability of the continued functioning of the Orenburg customs. The estimated model of "collapse" has confirmed the hypothesis about the impact of the change of status of the Orenburg customs (from the outside to the inside) on the amount of customs duties collected.Key words: Eurasian Economic Union, a time series dynamics, customs fees, the budget, the model forecast.

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About this article

Authors: Popov V.V., Tsypin A.P.

Year: 2015

Editor-in-chief

Sergey Aleksandrovich
MIROSHNIKOV

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