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November 2015, № 13 (188)



Renner A.G., Bantikova O.I., Zhemchuzhnikova Y.A., Stebunova O.I., Tuktamysheva L.M., Chudinova O.S. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC AND MIGRATION PROCESSES IN THE REGION, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RUSSIA'S WTO ACCESSION To form ideas about the sizes, structure and of the severity real and potential problems in the region in conditions the WTO and the sanctions imposed, not only at the present stage, but in the long term, you need a comprehensive study based on the application of advanced mathematical tools. The authors set the task to form methodic and demonstrate its influence to the analysis, modeling and forecasting the state of the economy, labor market, of demographic, migration and investment processes in the region in terms of Russia's accession to the WTO. The result of the study is a developed technique of monitoring of state of the economy and social sphere of the Orenburg region including the analysis of the current trends in demographics, migration and processes on labor market in the region in the conditions of formation of the Customs Union, of the world economic crisis and of the WTO accession; modeling of the dynamics of the structure of the number of migrants, employed and unemployed, investment in fixed assets, allowing to set trends in Changes of share of factors, laid in the foundation of the structure; formation of rating assessments Orenburg region by a set of indicators characterizing the state of the economy and the social sphere and the degree of lability to the conditions of the WTO; construction of models in the form of a system of simultaneous equations that reflect the communication structure of the indicators characterizing the labor market, investment, demographic and migratory processes and allowing to carry out forecasting under various scenarios. Formed methodic of monitoring the state of the economy and social sphere of the Orenburg region may contribute to the development and implementation of effective regional programs to reduce negative outcomes in terms of accession to the WTO, of the region's economy in general and on the labor market, in investment processes, demographic and migration processes, in particular.Key words: monitoring, modeling, forecasting, demographic processes, socio-economic developments, unemployment, duration of employment, Russian accession to the WTO.

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About this article

Authors: Zhemchuzhnikova Yu.A., Renner A.G., Bantikova O.I., Stebunova O.I., Tuktamysheva L.M., Chudinova O.S.

Year: 2015


Editor-in-chief
Sergey Aleksandrovich
MIROSHNIKOV

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