April 2015, № 4 (179)

Lipenkov A.V., Kuzmin N.A., Erofeeva L.N. THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF BUS STOPPING POINT CAPACITY IN CASE OF ABSENCE OF BUSES OVERTAKING MANEUVERSThe article describes the mathematical model for calculating of the throughput rate of urban passenger transport stopping point. It is proved that the throughput rate of stopping point increases disproportionately to the number of service points. In existing methodologies this fact is taken into account by empirical coefficients. Based on the analysis of the functioning process of stopping point it was found that the reducing of the stopping point effectiveness with increasing of the number of service points has two reasons. Firstly it is loss of time due to buses interference and secondly it is the "human factor". Empirical coefficients depend on several factors and can vary widely. The key attention of the paper the author focuses on the establishment of mathematical relationships between the loss of time from the buses interference and factors acting on them. The author concludes that time delay are fundamentally different in magnitude as well as in terms of operating factors, depending on the stopping point operating process. It is proposed to consider two schemes: the movement of buses one after another each without any possibility of maneuvering and the same movement with possible overtaking of a bus that is going ahead. It was found that the loss of time in the case of buses movement without maneuvering affected by the standard deviation of the passengers servicing time as well as the difference in time between the start of the service of two adjacent buses. With the help of the probability theory, Monte Carlo method as well as regression analysis the dependences of the loss of time from the standard deviation of the passengers servicing time were found. The obtained dependences can more accurately calculate the throughput rate of bus stopping points. In conclusion of the paper a number of factors are presented that affect the throughput rate of bus stopping point and require the detailed study in future works.

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Year: 2015

Editor-in-chief

Sergey Aleksandrovich
MIROSHNIKOV

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