2014, № 8 (169)

Tsypin A.P., Timofeev D.N. STATISTICAL RESEARCH OF INDICATORS OF RAILWAY TRANSPORT ON THE BASIS OF HISTORICAL TIME SERIESIn article tendencies of development of railway transport in Russia are considered, thus as evidential base historical time series of the main indicators during 1956-2011 are used. Those indicators are the passenger turnover and a rail freight turnover, thus a choice is caused by reasons of a certain general productivity of these indicators, i.e. investigating their dynamics it is possible to receive idea of all processes and the phenomena occurring in this type of economic activity (branch of a national economy). On the basis of the created historical time series decrease depth in this direction in the modern period (Russian Federation) rather previous (RSFSR) is visually shown. Application of adaptive methods of short-term forecasting to historical time series allowed to construct the forecast for the forthcoming period and to estimate the period of an exit to the level of development reached in the past.Key words: transport, passenger turnover, goods turnover, historical time series, adaptive forecasting method.

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About this article

Authors: Tsypin A.P., Timofeev D.N.

Year: 2014

Editor-in-chief

Sergey Aleksandrovich
MIROSHNIKOV

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