Mikhailovsky A.M., Chepasov V.I. THE QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE ATTRIBUTED OF THE MAJOR EPIDEMIOLOGICAL INDICATORS OF TB IN ORENBURG REGION ^{[№ 1 ' 2015]} The article deals with the epidemic of trouble Orenburg region on tuberculosis. Despite the improvement of the epidemiological situation, the Russian Federation is still among the countries with the highest burden of tuberculosis. This is facilitated by: unfavorable dynamics of prevalence of tuberculosis drug resistance, increasing the proportion of TBHIV and other immunosuppressive conditions. In our previous studies, we showed that in the region there are additional geographical and social conditions affecting the trouble of tuberculosis. We carried out a statistical analysis of key epidemiological indicators for TB using correlation analysis to determine the paired conditionalities and factor analysis to identify the group due to the parameters that determine the development of modern TB epidemic situation. Studies have features of tuberculosis epidemic situation in the region and in the whole of the Russian Federation. Revealed that the trouble on the development of this infectious disease affects "bacillary core" group of patients presented with fibrocavernous and bacillary tuberculosis, as well as a large proportion of patients with multidrugresistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Thus, the mathematical analysis of epidemiological indicators allow to characterize the modern epidemic situation of tuberculosis in the region and to identify the factors that affect its dynamics, which will optimize the evaluation, analysis and control of the epidemic situation, so terrible infectious diseases in the Orenburg region.Keywords: tuberculosis epidemic situation, epidemiological indicators, TB incidence, mortality from tuberculosis.
Kamenev S.V., Lapynina M.Yu., Fot A.P, Chepasov V.I. INTENSE THE DEFORMED CONDITION OF PLATES LINKS OF DRIVING ROLLER CHAINS ^{[№ 1 ' 2014]} Article is devoted to an assessment intense the deformed condition of plates of links of driving roller chains and to definition of a rational form and the sizes of plates.
Chepasov V.I., Fot A.P., Manyapova S.A., Bikmukhametov D.I. OPTIMIZATION OF QUANTITY OF TRAILER MEASURES IN GROUPS OF A SET ^{[№ 5 ' 2013]} As criterion of optimization at design of sets of trailer measures it is offered to use number of the sizes made of measures in the greatest piece of a row with the set step, the minimum and maximum value of the made size in the mentioned piece and the total length of measures of a set. The partial solution of the return task is proposed. Function for the accelerated optimization of quantity of measures in groups of a set is considered. The analysis of output characteristics of sets of measures for direct optimization and optimization on considered function is provided.
Chepasov V.I., Fot A.P., Bikmukhametova A.A., Sologub L.F. BASIC PARAMETERS FOR DEFINITION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF SETS OF END MEASURES ^{[№ 3 ' 2013]} The article discussed the questions of optimization of parameters of sets of planeparallel end measures on the basis of the methodology of association of the studied parameters of factors and location on the results of the associations in each of the factor of the basic parameters of the sets. On basic parameters, built models for finding of the main characteristics of sets of end measures.
Mikhailovskii A.M., Chepasov V.I. THE CORRELATION AND FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF THE EPIDEMIC SITUATION ON THE TUBERCULOSIS IN THE ORENBURG REGION ^{[№ 1 ' 2013]} In article considered the application of the correlation analysis for definition of paired conditioning and the factorial analysis to determine the parameters for study group conditioning epidemiological indicators on a tuberculosis in the Orenburg region for the purpose of optimisation of estimation, analysis and control over an epidemic situation.
Mullabaev A.A., Fot A.P., Chepasov V.I., Zurnadzhan N.V., Romantsov V.N. ON THE WAY TO MODERNIZE GUITAR MACHINE TOOL ^{[№ 1 ' 2013]} In article options of creation guitar machine are considered, the formula of calculation of theoretical quantity of the transfer relations in guitar machine with varied interaxal distances of tooth gearings used in guitar on the basis of combination theory methods for any number of variations of interaxal distances is offered, efficiency of separate guitars is estimated.
Chepasov V.I., Popovа O.B., Podosenova I.A. FORECAST DAYS WITH ZERO VALUES OF THE AVERAGE DAILY AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE HARMONIC MODEL OF TIDAL GRAVITY CHANGE ^{[№ 9 ' 2012]} Spectral methods by building harmonic models for the average daily rate of acceleration, the third, fourth derivative amendment tidal changes of gravity. By construction, the model is determined by numbers of days with zero values, which are projected numbers of days with zero values of the average daily air temperature.
Chepasov V.I., Popov O.B., Kolesnik A.N. TRANSITION PREDICTION DAYS AVERAGE DAILY AIR TEMPERATURES ON THE AMPLITUDE SPECTRA TIDAL CHANGES IN GRAVITY ^{[№ 4 ' 2012]} In the amplitude spectra of the characteristics of tidal changes in gravity are harmonic with the maximum amplitude, and on days zero values of these harmonics are predicting the transition days of daily mean air temperatures over zero.
Baranov. V.V., Belonovskaja I.D., Chepasov V.I. THE FACTORIAL ANALYSIS AS TOOLKIT OF PEDAGOGICAL KNOWLEDGE OF PROCESSES OF SELFDEVELOPMENT OF THE STUDENT UNIVERSITY COMPLEX ^{[№ 2 ' 2012]} The resulted productive quantitative and qualitative methods of research of processes of selfdevelopment. The correctness and applicability of the factorial analysis as toolkit of pedagogical knowledge of selfdevelopment processes is confirmed. As research materials materials of questioning of students of a university complex acted. On the basis of the factorial analysis minimization of the text of questionnaires is spent and the laws defining base factors of process of selfdevelopment of students are revealed.
Chepasov V.I., Popova O.B., Kolesnik A.N. FORECASTING OF DAYS OF MOVING OF AVERAGE DAILY AIR TEMPERATURES ON THE BASIC PARAMETERS OF THE TIDAL CHANGES OF THE GRAVITY POWER ^{[№ 1 ' 2012]} The authors examined forecasting of days of moving average daily air temperature using the basic settings. Basic settings are based on the results of a study on the settings associations according to factors for their respective matrices of study by means of daily air temperatures years and tidal gravity changes.
Chepasov V.I., Kolesnik A.N., Mustafina D.R. DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE NATURAL PROCESSES ^{[№ 5 ' 2011]} We consider the prediction of gender time based on the tidal changes of gravity. The results are given for the prediction models build on the matrix without shift and with shift of time frame for tidal changes in gravity.
Chepasov V.I., Konstantinova O.D. FORECAST OF DELIVERY TIME ON TIDAL GRAVITY CHANGES ^{[№ 4 ' 2011]} The application of factor and spectral analysis to find the basic parameters that are used as parametersarguments in the parametric model prediction is considered in this work. The results of the forecast, carried out on models constructed using the least squares method and method of D. Brandon.
Chepasov V.I., Mullabaev A.A., Phot A.P. GENERATION OF A SET OF CALIBRATED SIZES USING REGRESSION LIMITS ^{[№ 4 ' 2011]} The technique of generation of the source array of calibrated sizes (for example, a set of end measures, probes, etc.) to produce an output array of calibrated sizes (compiled using the dimensions of a set of measures) with optimal characteristics is regarded in this work. As the inequality constraints are used difference estimates obtained using regression equations.
Ershov V.I., Chepasov V.I. HETEROGENEITY OF ISCHEMIC STROKE FROM POSITION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING ^{[№ 1 ' 2011]} Based on analysis of 650 cases of ischemic stroke according to TOAST criteria, it was showed that the atherothrombotic subtype of ischemic stroke is the most common situation (p<0,05). As a result of analysis of major clinical and paraclinical signs of ischemic stroke in the most acute period we developed two models of the possible fatality dependence on the severity of atherothrombotic and cardioembolic stroke subtypes, which improves the quality of the disease prediction. In patients with severe stroke, more favorable prognosis occurred in atherothrombotic pathogenic subtype, compared with cardioembolic stroke (p<0,05). Synergy features of the developed models were shown.
Chepasov V.I., Mullabaev А.А., Fot А.P. OPTIMIZATION OF QUANTITIES OF CALIBRATED DIMENSIONS ^{[№ 2 ' 2010]} The report addresses the method for determination of initial dimension stock for obtaining calibrated dimensions output stock with optimum characteristics. The basic parameters found through the factor analysis were used as parametersarguments for the target function.
